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Canadians Are Quietly Bracing for Missed Payments in 2026 — And the Bank of Canada Just Confirmed It

Most Canadians aren’t “bad with money.”
January 24, 2026 by
Canadians Are Quietly Bracing for Missed Payments in 2026 — And the Bank of Canada Just Confirmed It
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They’re just getting crushed by a reality that keeps getting more expensive… and harder to predict.

According to the Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (Fourth Quarter 2025), Canadians are increasingly worried about missing debt payments, losing their jobs, and falling behind — even as they try to cut spending and stay afloat.

And that shift matters.

Because when consumer confidence breaks, the housing market doesn’t need a crash to cause damage.

It just needs stress.

The Most Important Takeaway: Canadians Think They’re Closer to Missing a Payment

In the latest survey, Canadians reported:

  • a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment

  • a slightly greater chance of losing their job

  • weaker spending plans, meaning households are pulling back and becoming defensive

This is the exact pattern you see right before households start making “survival decisions”:

  • delaying renewals and hoping rates drop

  • skipping repairs

  • living on credit

  • choosing minimum payments

  • refinancing under pressure

And one survey respondent said it perfectly:

“Almost everybody’s living on credit…. It’s something that’s going to be detrimental for households.”

That one line describes what thousands of families in Ontario are living right now.

Economic Uncertainty Is Becoming the New Financial Emergency

The survey shows Canadians aren’t just worried about high prices anymore.

They’re worried because the economy feels unstable — and instability is what kills confidence.

A major theme behind this uncertainty is the ongoing trade conflict and tariff headlines, which Canadians still see as a major driver behind rising costs.

And when consumers don’t trust what tomorrow looks like, they stop spending, stop investing, and stop taking risks.

That turns into:

  • fewer home upgrades

  • fewer purchases

  • fewer renovations

  • fewer moves

  • more household tension

  • and more mortgage stress

Job Anxiety Is Rising — Even Though Job Hope Improved

This part is extremely telling.

Canadians said they felt:

✅ a better chance of finding a job or voluntarily leaving one

❌ but also a higher chance of losing their job

That’s not optimism.

That’s uncertainty.

It’s people saying:

“I think I can find work… but I’m not sure I’ll keep this job long enough to feel safe.”

This is especially worrying in industries that rely heavily on Canada–U.S. trade.

One worker explained it bluntly:

“The longer tariffs last, the greater the impact will be… small businesses are the victim of tariffs if they sell to the USA.”

Translation?

The job market doesn’t need to collapse.

It just needs enough layoffs, slowdowns, or reduced hours to trigger missed payments.

Canadians Are Cutting Spending — And It’s Not Because They Want To

Consumers reported weak spending intentions again this quarter.

Not because they’re being “responsible.”

But because they’re being forced to choose.

The top barriers to spending stayed the same:

  • high prices for goods and services

  • economic uncertainty

  • elevated housing costs

One person summed up what families are doing everywhere:

“It’s definitely tough for my family, and we have to budget more appropriately… I purchase less wants and more needs.”

This is what mortgage stress looks like before it becomes visible on paper.

It starts in the grocery store.

Inflation Expectations Are Still Elevated (Even When People Don’t Trust Prices to Drop)

One of the most dangerous psychological shifts in Canada right now is simple:

Canadians no longer believe prices will come down.

Even when inflation slows, people still feel permanently behind.

The survey shows near-term inflation expectations remain higher than they were before the pandemic.

But long-term expectations have eased.

That creates a weird emotional reality:

  • People expect things to stay expensive now

  • People don’t trust that “waiting” will fix anything

  • People start planning defensively

Even respondents who knew some counter-tariffs were removed didn’t believe it would bring prices down.

As one person said:

“I’ve never seen prices go down… companies will stop raising prices and leave it at what it is.”

This is exactly why Canadians feel trapped:

the cost of living ratchets up — but doesn’t reverse.

The Hidden Truth: Canada Is Turning Into a Refinance Economy

This survey doesn’t say “mortgage crisis.”

But it describes the conditions that create one:

  • more households living on credit

  • higher probability of missed payments

  • weak spending plans

  • job insecurity

  • permanent cost-of-living anxiety

This is how a normal homeowner becomes a stressed homeowner.

And this is why more Canadians are turning to:

  • home equity loans

  • second mortgages

  • refinancing

  • private mortgages

  • bridge solutions

  • debt consolidation through equity

Not because they’re reckless.

Because they’re adapting.

What This Means for Homeowners in Ontario (Especially in 2026)

If you’re a homeowner, here’s what you need to understand:

1) Missing one payment isn’t “a small mistake” anymore

In a tight economy, lenders become less flexible.

2) Your renewal can become a pressure point

Even good borrowers are getting nervous about:

  • approval conditions

  • income verification

  • debt ratios

  • higher payment shock

3) Waiting can actually make your options worse

If you wait until the last minute:

  • your credit gets hit

  • your stress rises

  • your lender options shrink

  • your negotiation power disappears

The best time to plan is before it becomes urgent.

How Lendworth Helps When Canadians Feel Financial Pressure

At Lendworth, we help Ontario homeowners who are dealing with real-life financial stress — not perfect paperwork.

We focus on equity-based lending solutions when the bank is too slow, too strict, or simply says no.

We can help with:

  • private mortgages in Ontario

  • second mortgages

  • home equity loans

  • refinancing and debt consolidation

  • short-term solutions with a clear exit strategy

Because when consumers are worried about missing payments, the solution isn’t shame.

It’s speed, structure, and clarity.

Final Word: The Bank of Canada Survey Isn’t Fear — It’s a Warning

Canadians aren’t collapsing.

They’re bracing.

They’re budgeting harder, spending less, and quietly preparing for impact.

And when millions of households start thinking about missed payments at the same time, the real estate market doesn’t need a headline crash to change.

It changes from the inside out.

If you’re feeling that pressure already, you’re not alone — and you still have options.

www.lendworth.ca