New condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) just plunged to the lowest level since 1991 — and the numbers are honestly worse than most people realize.
This isn’t a small slowdown.
This is a structural collapse in confidence — and it could reshape affordability, resale prices, and mortgage approvals across Ontario for years.
The Condo Market Didn’t “Cool Down.” It Fell Off a Cliff.
According to Urbanation’s year-end 2025 Condominium Market Survey, the GTHA recorded only 1,599 new condo sales in 2025, down 60% from the year before.
To put that into perspective:
New condo sales were 91% below the 10-year average
Sales dropped 95% since 2021
Q4 sales were the lowest quarterly number since 1990
This isn’t “buyers waiting for better deals.”
This is buyers saying: “This doesn’t make sense anymore.”
Record Condo Cancellations: 28 Projects Scrapped
Here’s the part that should scare anyone who cares about the future housing supply in Ontario:
Urbanation says a record 28 active condo projects were cancelled in 2025, wiping out 7,243 units.
That’s not just a bad year.
That’s a serious signal that builders no longer believe new condos can sell at prices that work.
And when developers stop building, the pain doesn’t show up immediately — it shows up later, when supply dries up and rental pressure spikes.
Condo Starts Hit a Multi-Decade Low (This Is How Supply Crashes Are Born)
Even worse than falling sales is what happened to construction starts.
Urbanation reports that condo starts fell 63% year-over-year in 2025 to only 3,272 units.
And developers launched only 10 new condo projects in the entire year.
That’s basically the market screaming:
✅ “We can’t move inventory.”
✅ “We can’t price this profitably.”
✅ “We can’t take the risk.”
The “No New Condos by 2029” Warning Is Not Clickbait
Urbanation’s president Shaun Hildebrand called this downturn a “significant cause for concern” and warned that by the end of the decade there likely won’t be any new condo completions in the GTHA.
Think about what that means:
less supply
higher competition for rentals
more pressure on resale inventory
and a housing market that becomes even harder for normal people to enter
It’s not a crash story.
It’s a supply shock story.
Why This Is Happening (In Plain English)
This condo correction isn’t random. It’s the result of a few forces hitting at the same time:
1) Investors stepped back
Condos were often bought as investments — but with higher rates and weaker rent-to-cost math, the “easy profit” model disappeared.
2) Pre-construction became a liability
Many buyers who signed in 2020–2022 can’t close in 2025–2026 without coming up with more money, stronger income proof, or larger mortgages at today’s rates.
3) Builders can’t make the numbers work
Labour, financing, insurance, approvals — everything costs more. Buyers refuse today’s pricing, but developers can’t cut enough to make it profitable.
What This Means If You Own a Condo in Ontario
If you already own a condo, here’s the reality:
✅ Your price may not “explode upward” anytime soon
There’s still oversupply in some segments — especially investor-heavy buildings.
✅ But supply will tighten later
When new construction slows, there’s a lag effect. Less future supply often means higher rent pressure down the road.
✅ Mortgage renewals could get tougher
If values slide while lenders tighten, refinancing and renewals can become stressful for condo owners who are highly leveraged.
What This Means If You’re Trying to Buy in 2026
This market is creating a rare window for smart buyers:
Some sellers are realistic
Some units are sitting longer
Some developers are more flexible than they were in 2021–2022
But the key is this:
You don’t win by getting the cheapest condo. You win by getting the safest deal.
That means understanding:
your interest rate risk
your renewal strategy
your ability to refinance later if needed
How Lendworth Helps in This Condo Market Reset
At Lendworth, we help Ontario homeowners and buyers navigate condo financing when the banks say “no” or move too slowly.
We specialize in:
Private mortgages in Ontario
Second mortgages
Home equity loans
Fast refinancing solutions
Lending based on equity and exit strategy, not perfect income
If you’re facing a renewal, a closing deadline, or a refinance problem, we can help you build a solution that actually works.
✅ Visit www.lendworth.ca to talk with our team.
Final Thought: This Isn’t the End of Condos — It’s the End of Easy Condos
The GTHA condo market isn’t dead.
But the old model is.
The era of:
“buy anything”
“prices always jump”
“rent will cover everything”
“closing will be easy”
…is over.
Now it’s a smarter market — and the people who survive it are the ones who understand financing, timing, and risk.
And if the supply pipeline stays broken long enough, the next affordability problem won’t be prices.
It’ll be availability.