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Canada’s Housing Market Hit Pause — But 2026 Isn’t a Crash Story

As 2025 closed, Canada’s housing market didn’t fall apart — it paused.
January 15, 2026 by
Canada’s Housing Market Hit Pause — But 2026 Isn’t a Crash Story
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According to data from Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined 2.7% month-over-month in December 2025, capping off a year that felt uneven, emotional, and heavily influenced by uncertainty rather than fundamentals.

For homeowners, buyers, and investors heading into 2026, the takeaway is clear:

This is not a broken market — it’s a cautious one.

The 2025 Housing Story in One Sentence

📉 Buyers stepped back early,

📈 returned mid-year,

⏸️ then waited again at year-end.

Total 2025 transactions came in at 470,314 sales, down just 1.9% from 2024 — a surprisingly modest decline considering interest rates, affordability stress, and policy uncertainty.

December 2025 Market Snapshot (What Really Matters)

Here’s what the headlines don’t fully explain:

  • Home sales: Down 2.7% month-over-month

  • Sales vs. December 2024: Down 4.5%

  • New listings: Fell 2% (fourth straight monthly drop)

  • MLS® Home Price Index:

    • ⬇️ 0.3% month-over-month

    • ⬇️ 4% year-over-year

  • Average sale price: $673,335, virtually unchanged year-over-year

In other words:

Prices softened slightly, but didn’t collapse. Activity slowed, but didn’t freeze.

This Wasn’t a National Breakdown — It Was Regional Fatigue

CREA’s senior economist noted there was no single national trigger behind December’s slowdown. Instead, coinciding pauses across Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal created the national dip.

That distinction matters.

Because when there’s no clear cause, there’s also no clear reason to project panic into 2026.

Inventory Is Tightening Again — Quietly

Despite the slowdown headlines:

  • Active listings:

    • 133,495 homes nationally

    • Up 7.4% year-over-year

    • Still nearly 10% below long-term averages

  • Months of inventory: 4.5 months

    • Long-term average: 5 months

    • Still firmly a balanced market

This is not a buyer’s market.

It’s not a seller’s market.

It’s a hesitation market.

And hesitation creates opportunity — for those who can act.

Ontario & the GTA: Where the Softness Is Concentrated

Most of December’s price softening came from Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe, with:

  • Larger year-over-year declines in condos and townhomes

  • Smaller declines in detached homes

This reinforces what we’re seeing daily at Lendworth:

👉 Equity-rich homeowners are stable

👉 Condo investors are under pressure

👉 Refinancing is harder — but equity still works

Why 2026 Won’t Be a Standstill Year

CREA expects activity to rise again as we move toward spring, supported by:

  • Four years of pent-up demand

  • Interest rates near their practical floor

  • Limited new supply coming online

Translation:

The market isn’t waiting for “perfect conditions.”

It’s waiting for confidence.

What This Means for Homeowners in 2026

If you’re relying on a bank approval in 2026, expect tighter rules, longer timelines, and more scrutiny.

If you’re relying on equity, the window is still open.

At Lendworth, we’re seeing increased demand for:

  • Second mortgages

  • Refinance solutions when banks say no

  • Equity access during renewals

  • Stop-gap financing ahead of spring listings

  • Private solutions for self-employed borrowers

The market didn’t shut down — bank lending did.

The Bottom Line

December’s numbers don’t signal a downturn.

They signal a reset in behavior.

And in resets, private lenders step in where institutions step back.

📞 905-597-1225

🌐 https://www.lendworth.ca

Your equity deserves more™