According to data from Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined 2.7% month-over-month in December 2025, capping off a year that felt uneven, emotional, and heavily influenced by uncertainty rather than fundamentals.
For homeowners, buyers, and investors heading into 2026, the takeaway is clear:
This is not a broken market — it’s a cautious one.
The 2025 Housing Story in One Sentence
📉 Buyers stepped back early,
📈 returned mid-year,
⏸️ then waited again at year-end.
Total 2025 transactions came in at 470,314 sales, down just 1.9% from 2024 — a surprisingly modest decline considering interest rates, affordability stress, and policy uncertainty.
December 2025 Market Snapshot (What Really Matters)
Here’s what the headlines don’t fully explain:
Home sales: Down 2.7% month-over-month
Sales vs. December 2024: Down 4.5%
New listings: Fell 2% (fourth straight monthly drop)
MLS® Home Price Index:
⬇️ 0.3% month-over-month
⬇️ 4% year-over-year
Average sale price: $673,335, virtually unchanged year-over-year
In other words:
Prices softened slightly, but didn’t collapse. Activity slowed, but didn’t freeze.
This Wasn’t a National Breakdown — It Was Regional Fatigue
CREA’s senior economist noted there was no single national trigger behind December’s slowdown. Instead, coinciding pauses across Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal created the national dip.
That distinction matters.
Because when there’s no clear cause, there’s also no clear reason to project panic into 2026.
Inventory Is Tightening Again — Quietly
Despite the slowdown headlines:
Active listings:
133,495 homes nationally
Up 7.4% year-over-year
Still nearly 10% below long-term averages
Months of inventory: 4.5 months
Long-term average: 5 months
Still firmly a balanced market
This is not a buyer’s market.
It’s not a seller’s market.
It’s a hesitation market.
And hesitation creates opportunity — for those who can act.
Ontario & the GTA: Where the Softness Is Concentrated
Most of December’s price softening came from Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe, with:
Larger year-over-year declines in condos and townhomes
Smaller declines in detached homes
This reinforces what we’re seeing daily at Lendworth:
👉 Equity-rich homeowners are stable
👉 Condo investors are under pressure
👉 Refinancing is harder — but equity still works
Why 2026 Won’t Be a Standstill Year
CREA expects activity to rise again as we move toward spring, supported by:
Four years of pent-up demand
Interest rates near their practical floor
Limited new supply coming online
Translation:
The market isn’t waiting for “perfect conditions.”
It’s waiting for confidence.
What This Means for Homeowners in 2026
If you’re relying on a bank approval in 2026, expect tighter rules, longer timelines, and more scrutiny.
If you’re relying on equity, the window is still open.
At Lendworth, we’re seeing increased demand for:
Second mortgages
Refinance solutions when banks say no
Equity access during renewals
Stop-gap financing ahead of spring listings
Private solutions for self-employed borrowers
The market didn’t shut down — bank lending did.
The Bottom Line
December’s numbers don’t signal a downturn.
They signal a reset in behavior.
And in resets, private lenders step in where institutions step back.
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Your equity deserves more™