While office towers and some residential rental markets still struggle post-pandemic, retirement communities, assisted living residences, and long-term care facilities are surging in value and demand.
From Pandemic Crisis to Market Leader
Five years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to seniors’ housing. Outbreaks, tragic fatalities, and public scrutiny led to lawsuits, declining occupancy rates, and skyrocketing operating costs. Many older facilities closed, and new construction slowed dramatically as building costs doubled.
Today, that slowdown has created a tight supply — just 10,000 senior housing units are currently under construction across Canada, far short of the 200,000 needed over the next decade (Cushman & Wakefield).
The Numbers Driving Investor Excitement
- Population Boom: Canadians aged 75+ will grow by 45% to 5.3 million within 10 years.
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Stock Market Outperformance: In 2025, senior housing companies have outpaced the S&P/TSX Composite’s real estate sector by triple the returns.
- Sienna Senior Living Inc.: +19%
- Chartwell Retirement Residences: +20%
- Extendicare Inc.: +21%
- Occupancy Recovery: Pre-pandemic occupancy of 92% is expected to return this year, climbing to 95% in 2026.
Dean Orrico, CEO of Middlefield Limited, calls it “one of the most resilient asset classes in Canada”, driven by guaranteed demographic demand.
Big Deals & Market Expansion
Chartwell Retirement Residences recently announced a $432M acquisition of six Ontario retirement communities totaling 1,024 suites, alongside expansion in Quebec. This comes amid record-level deal activity — Cushman & Wakefield predicts 2025 will be a banner year for seniors’ housing M&A.
Why Demand Keeps Rising
- Wealthy Aging Demographic: Many retirees can tap into significant home equity, pensions, and investments to fund retirement living.
- Government Policy: Ontario’s Bill 7 is moving patients from hospitals into long-term care homes, increasing occupancy pressures.
- Chronic Supply Shortage: Only 73,000 new suites built in the last decade vs. 200,000 required by 2035.
Risks and Challenges for Investors
While the sector is hot, investors must be aware of potential headwinds:
- Labour shortages in healthcare staffing.
- Sensitivity to interest rate spikes affecting REIT financing.
- Potential downturns in home values impacting retirees’ ability to pay.
Still, analysts agree the fundamentals are strong. Orrico predicts interest rates will trend lower into 2026, adding further fuel to the sector’s momentum.
The Bottom Line
Canada’s senior housing sector isn’t just rebounding — it’s redefining real estate investing in the 2020s. With supply shortages, skyrocketing demand, and solid REIT performance, the “grey wave” is turning into a gold rush for strategic investors.
For those looking to invest in secure, income-producing real estate — whether directly or through REITs — seniors’ housing is proving to be one of the most resilient plays in the market.
At Lendworth, we understand that smart investing is about balancing stability, growth, and long-term security. As a leading equity-based mortgage investment corporation in Canada, we specialize in asset-backed lending opportunities that deliver targeted, consistent returns. Our portfolio approach allows investors to participate in high-demand real estate sectors, including seniors housing investment opportunities, without the operational risks of direct property ownership. With a proven track record of delivering strong yields, strict due diligence on every deal, and a commitment to transparency, Lendworth offers a secure and strategic way to diversify your portfolio, protect capital, and benefit from Canada’s most resilient real estate growth trends.