A new report reveals that housing starts across 34 municipalities in southern Ontario dropped by more than one-third in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period from 2021 to 2024.
And for the GTA and Greater Golden Horseshoe?
The numbers are even more dramatic.
Condo construction is down 51%.
Ground-oriented homes are down 43%.
Builders are pulling back.
Developers are cancelling projects.
Financing is tightening.
Ontario is officially facing a construction slowdown that could reshape the market for the next decade.
So what does this mean for your property value, home equity, and borrowing power?
Let’s break it down.
👉 Want to see how this impacts your home value today? Get your free EquityCheck™ report:
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
🔻 Housing Starts Down Over 33% — The Supply Problem Just Got Worse
The University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative, commissioned by the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), reported:
Housing starts down over 33% across 34 southern Ontario municipalities
Condo starts down 51%
Ground-oriented housing down 43%
Purpose-built rentals up 42%, the only segment with growth
RESCON president Richard Lyall didn’t hold back:
“We are staring into the abyss.”
Builders are seeing rising construction costs, tighter lending conditions, reduced demand for pre-construction units, and shrinking project margins. Many are delaying or cancelling projects entirely.
🔥 Why This Matters: Less Supply = Long-Term Price Pressure
While 2024 and 2025 brought softer prices, more listings, and slower sales, this construction slowdown sets the stage for future price pressure once demand returns.
Fewer homes being built today means:
✔ Increased competition for existing homes
✔ Faster recovery of resale values
✔ Higher long-term home prices
✔ Rising rental rates
✔ Greater homeowner leverage
Ontario needs 430,000–480,000 new homes per year for affordability to return — yet we are delivering nowhere near that number.
🏡 What This Means for Ontario Homeowners Right Now
This supply shock impacts you in three major ways:
1. Your Home Equity May Rise Faster Than Expected
As new construction slows and demand eventually rebounds (especially with rate cuts expected in 2026), existing homes become more valuable.
Homeowners with detached, semi-detached, and townhomes in the GTA, York, Peel, Durham, and Simcoe could see equity growth sooner than many predicted.
👉 Check your current equity instantly with EquityCheck™
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
2. It Will Get Harder for First-Time Buyers — Increasing Demand for Refinances & Equity Loans
With fewer new units entering the market, affordability challenges worsen.
That means:
more buyers staying in rentals longer
more competition in resale markets
more homeowners tapping into equity to consolidate debt or refinance
Homeowners who act early often secure better rates and terms.
3. Developers Delaying Projects Will Push Buyers Back to the Resale Market
Delayed and cancelled condo projects mean thousands of would-be buyers shift back into:
resale markets
equity-based borrowing
second mortgages
HELOCs
bridge loans
This adds pressure to the existing stock of homes — and pushes values up faster.
⚠️ Why This Could Become a 10-Year Problem
Canada needs nearly half a million new homes per year to restore affordability.
Instead, Southern Ontario is building fewer homes than it did four years ago.
This gap compounds every single year, leading to:
chronic undersupply
rising prices
shrinking affordability
increased dependence on existing housing stock
If you own a home, this is good long-term news.
If you’re trying to enter the market? Not so much.
🎯 What Homeowners Should Do Now
Whether you’re planning to:
refinance
consolidate debt
renovate
take a second mortgage
buy another property
borrow for investment
prepare for retirement
…knowing your true home value and usable equity is critical — especially in a shifting construction environment.
That’s why Lendworth created:
⭐ EquityCheck™ — Ontario’s Free Lender-Grade Home Value Report
In just 2 minutes, EquityCheck™ shows you:
your estimated property value
your home equity
your usable equity
your real borrowing power
mortgage and refinancing options
Built with real comparable sales, neighbourhood data, and underwriting logic — not automated guesses.
👉 Get your free EquityCheck™ report here
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
Ontario’s construction slowdown is real — and serious.
Housing starts collapsing by over one-third means:
fewer homes
rising competition
long-term price pressure
accelerated equity growth for existing homeowners
Supply is shrinking.
Demand will return.
Homeowners who understand their equity now will be in the strongest position later.
👉 See your true home value and equity today — free: