After two straight years of declining prices, leading economists and mortgage experts are warning that 2026 could bring even more pressure, particularly across Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
For homeowners, buyers, and investors, this shift is changing everything — from selling strategies to how people use home equity.
Ontario Home Prices Are Still Falling — And 2026 May Not Be the Bottom
According to Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, GTA home prices fell 6.4% over the past year, capping off one of the weakest market stretches in decades.
New home sales in the GTA also hit a multi-decade low in 2025, signaling that buyer confidence remains fragile.
And several experts believe the worst may not be over.
“The one thing for sure is that it’s going to get worse in Ontario. There is no possibility of better,”
— Ron Butler
Butler says optimism about a quick rebound is based on “hopium,” not fundamentals.
Toronto and Vancouver Expected to Lag Again in 2026
While some Canadian cities may see modest price gains, Ontario is notably absent from those optimistic forecasts.
In its 2026 outlook, Royal LePage predicts:
Toronto prices down another 4.5%
Vancouver prices down 3.5%
Canada’s two most expensive markets continuing to underperform
The reasons are stacking up — and they’re not short-term.
Why Experts Say 2026 Will Be Tough for Ontario Housing
Analysts point to several major headwinds:
Rising unemployment (Canada’s rate reached 6.8% in December, per Statistics Canada)
Fewer international students
Ongoing Canada–U.S. economic uncertainty
Slowing population growth
High borrowing costs
And most critically: mortgage renewals
According to a Bank of Canada report, roughly 60% of Canadian mortgage holders will face higher payments in 2025–2026.
Homeowners who locked in five-year fixed rates around 1.47% in 2021 are now renewing closer to 4% — or higher.
For households with multiple properties, that increase can be overwhelming.
Ontario Prices by Property Type: All Moving Lower
Data from Nesto shows province-wide declines across every segment:
Single-family homes: down 4.9%
Townhomes: down 6.6%
Condos: down 7%
“With all these factors, I’ll bet anyone there is no price recovery in 2026,” Butler said.
Is This a Housing Crash? Not Exactly — But It Is a Reset
Economists say this isn’t a collapse — it’s a prolonged adjustment.
Victor Couture, associate professor at the University of Toronto, explains:
“In a downturn like this you’d expect it to keep dragging. It’s impossible to predict when the market will turn.”
Without:
Rapid population growth
Very low interest rates
Or strong economic expansion
There’s little reason to expect meaningful price growth anytime soon.
Couture adds that Ontario’s housing slowdown is resetting expectations — especially the belief that real estate is a guaranteed path to wealth.
Should Buyers Wait — Or Act?
Opinions are divided.
Ron Butler advises most buyers to wait unless they absolutely must purchase.
Couture says buyers who plan to live in a home for 5–10 years may find this the best opportunity in years.
Kari Norman of Desjardins believes Ontario prices may stabilize gradually in late 2026 — but not spike.
What everyone agrees on: there’s no rush.
What This Means for Ontario Homeowners Right Now
For current homeowners, this market isn’t about selling — it’s about survival, strategy, and flexibility.
With:
Flat or declining values
Higher mortgage payments
Slower sales
And tighter bank lending rules
More Ontario homeowners are choosing to unlock equity instead of selling at a discount.
The Equity Strategy Taking Over in 2026
At Lendworth, we’re seeing homeowners use equity to:
Manage mortgage renewal shock
Consolidate high-interest debt
Reduce monthly cash flow pressure
Avoid selling into a weak market
Buy time until conditions improve
Private lending focuses on equity — not stress tests.
Even in a declining market, many Ontario homeowners still hold significant usable equity.
Feeling the Pressure? Lendworth Helps You Stay in Control
If 2026 is bringing uncertainty — you don’t have to face it alone.
Lendworth specializes in:
Home equity loans
Second mortgages
Private refinancing
Debt consolidation
Fast, equity-based approvals across Ontario
📞 Call 905-597-1225
Your equity deserves more™