A University of Ottawa Missing Middle Initiative study reveals that new housing starts across the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe have collapsed — dropping 34% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period from 2021 to 2024.
Condo construction?
Down a staggering 51%.
And with fewer new homes being built, the ripple effect is massive:
up to 26,000 construction jobs lost in the Toronto region.
Economists, builders, and policy experts are calling this a crisis — one that affects every homeowner, every buyer, and every corner of Ontario’s real estate market.
Here’s what’s happening — and what it means for your home value and your equity.
👉 Want to know your home’s real value today? Get a free EquityCheck™ report:
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
🔻 Housing Starts Down 34% — The Slowdown Is Everywhere
Researchers analyzed 34 municipalities across nine metro areas in the GTA and GGH.
Here’s what they found:
✔ Overall housing starts:
⬇ 34% (Jan–Sept 2025 compared to 2021–24)
✔ Condo starts:
⬇ 51% — one of the steepest drops ever recorded
✔ Ground-oriented homes (detached, semis, towns):
Also sharply down
✔ Purpose-built rentals:
⬆ 42% — the lone bright spot
Builders aren’t pausing — they’re pulling out.
Costs are soaring, financing is tightening, and buyer demand has cooled to levels not seen in a decade.
⚠️ The Job Loss Impact: Over 26,000 Positions Gone
Altus Group and CMHC data suggest the collapse in construction activity translated into:
❗ 26,000+ jobs lost in the Toronto CMA
This includes:
tradespeople
construction labour
project managers
suppliers
manufacturing and materials
architecture and planning
The slowdown is hitting the entire housing supply chain.
Richard Lyall, RESCON president, didn’t mince words:
“We are staring into the abyss.”
Projects are being shelved.
Skilled workers are being laid off.
And the economic fallout is spreading.
🧨 Why This Matters to Homeowners: Supply Is Shrinking Fast
While construction is slowing down, demand isn’t disappearing — especially in Ontario, where:
immigration is high
inventory is historically low
household formation is rising
rental demand is intense
buyers will return when rates fall
When supply drops but demand rebounds, values climb.
Meaning this downturn could trigger the next price surge once affordability improves and rates begin falling in 2026.
🔥 Your Home Equity Could Rise Faster Than Expected
With fewer new builds entering the market, existing homes gain value simply because they’re scarce.
This slowdown means:
✔ Less future supply
✔ Faster recovery of home prices
✔ Higher long-term appreciation
✔ Increased home equity for current owners
If you own a home in Toronto, Vaughan, Brampton, Mississauga, Durham, or York Region — your equity could grow rapidly once buyers flood back.
👉 Check your updated home value in 2 minutes with EquityCheck™
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
🏡 Why Builders Are Pulling Back
RESCON attributes the collapse in construction activity to:
1. Soaring taxes and fees
Totaling up to 36% of the cost of a new home.
2. High borrowing costs
Developers and buyers both squeezed.
3. Uncertainty in the new-home market
Sales of pre-construction units have slowed dramatically.
4. Cost inflation
Materials and labour remain expensive.
5. Funding challenges
Banks are underwriting new developments more aggressively.
Even governments’ ambitious construction goals — nearly half a million new homes per year for affordability — are now seen as wildly unrealistic.
💸 What Homeowners Can Do Right Now
This construction slowdown creates a unique window for homeowners:
1. Your equity may be worth more than you think
With new supply shrinking, existing homes gain value.
2. Refinancing may get easier as values stabilize
Home equity loans, second mortgages, and HELOC alternatives become more accessible.
3. Now is the time to consolidate debt or refinance before demand returns
Once rates fall in 2026, everyone will be rushing to borrow.
4. Renovations become more valuable
Fewer new homes = higher resale competition.
👉 Get your lender-grade home equity report for free:
https://www.lendworth.ca/equity-check
⭐ How Lendworth Helps Homeowners in This Market Shift
With banks tightening lending rules, Lendworth gives Ontario homeowners real alternatives:
✔ Home Equity Loans
✔ Second Mortgages
✔ Refinance Options
✔ Renovation Financing
✔ Emergency Funding
✔ Debt Consolidation Solutions
Approval is based on home equity — not perfect credit or traditional income.
If your home has equity, you have options.
📌 Bottom Line: A Construction Crisis Today = A Supply Crunch Tomorrow
The GTA is losing thousands of housing starts and tens of thousands of jobs — a warning sign for policymakers and an opportunity for homeowners.
Less construction today means less supply tomorrow, and that almost always leads to higher values and stronger equity.
Get ahead of the shift.
Know your equity now.
Use it smartly with Lendworth.
👉 Free EquityCheck™ Report — 2-Minute Home Value Estimate