According to its 2026 Market Outlook, economic headwinds are expected to impact Canada’s housing market for the next three years — and Ontario is right in the middle of it.
If you’re a homeowner, condo investor, or developer in Toronto or the GTA, this isn’t just economic commentary.
It’s a warning.
📉 CMHC Forecast: Slower Growth, Fewer Housing Starts, Weak Condo Market
CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes outlined several major concerns:
🇨🇦 Real GDP growth forecast at just 0.7% in 2026
🏗️ Housing starts falling below the 10-year average
🏢 Condo construction expected to remain weak through 2028
📦 High levels of unsold inventory in Toronto & Vancouver
📉 Slower population growth and softer labour markets
The result?
A housing market under pressure from high construction costs, weaker buyer demand, and trade-related economic uncertainty.
And in Toronto specifically, the condo market is absorbing a massive wave of completed units.
🚨 Toronto Condo Owners Are Feeling It First
Realtors are reporting a “dump” of new condo inventory hitting the market.
Many of these units were purchased during the ultra-low interest rate era of 2020–2021. Today:
Interest rates are higher
Values are lower
Refinancing is harder
Pre-construction investors are facing losses
Some sellers are forfeiting deposits
For those who stretched to buy preconstruction, the math has changed.
And banks are tightening underwriting — even for borrowers with strong equity.
🏗️ The Hidden Risk: Today’s Slowdown = Tomorrow’s Shortage
While today feels oversupplied, CMHC warns that housing completions will taper off in coming years.
Less construction now means fewer units later.
CMHC has already stated Canada needs 3.5 million more homes than current building pace to restore affordability by 2030 — a target that is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.
Translation?
Short-term pressure.
Long-term supply risk.
Volatility in between.
What This Means for Ontario Homeowners in 2026
If you own property in:
Toronto
Vaughan
Mississauga
Markham
Richmond Hill
Brampton
Or anywhere across Ontario
You are operating in a market that is:
Slower
More selective
Less forgiving
More equity-driven
Banks are increasingly focused on income stability, credit tightening, and internal risk controls.
That leaves many homeowners asking:
“If my bank says no… what are my options?”
Why Private Lending Is Becoming More Relevant in This Cycle
When economic growth slows and banks reduce risk appetite, private capital often fills the gap.
At Lendworth, we focus on:
Equity-based lending
Conservative loan-to-value structures
Fast underwriting decisions
Real people making real calls
We are seeing more scenarios like:
Renewal declines despite strong equity
Condo investors needing bridge solutions
Estate situations during market softness
Business owners navigating slower income cycles
Buyers needing short-term flexibility while markets rebalance
The CMHC forecast confirms what many are already experiencing:
The traditional mortgage system tightens during uncertainty.
The Ontario Reality: Equity Matters More Than Ever
In a slower GDP environment (0.7% projected), liquidity becomes critical.
If you have 30%, 40%, or 50% equity in your property — that equity can become your financial buffer.
Markets cycle.
Capital discipline does not.
At Lendworth, our approach remains consistent:
Conservative underwriting
Clear exit strategy
Property-first evaluation
Transparent structure
We are not betting on price appreciation.
We are lending against real, tangible equity.
The Next 36 Months Will Separate Strategy from Speculation
CMHC’s forecast is not predicting a crash.
It’s predicting restraint.
And in restrained markets:
Speed matters
Flexibility matters
Capital structure matters
If your renewal is approaching, if your condo investment is under pressure, or if your bank has tightened terms, it’s better to understand your options early.
📞 Speak With a Private Lending Specialist
Economic cycles create uncertainty — but they also create opportunity for those prepared.
If you need clarity on your situation:
Call Lendworth today at 905-597-1225
No obligation. Just straight answers.
Your equity deserves a strategy — not a delay.