As we move deeper into 2026, one message is becoming clear: the window to refinance at today’s values is narrowing.
National forecasts are split. Some analysts expect modest growth of roughly +3.2%, while others project a mild decline of up to -3.7%. Toronto sits right at the centre of that uncertainty — and historically, when Toronto pauses, lenders tighten first.
Toronto Isn’t Falling — It’s Repricing
This is not 2008. It’s not 2020. And it’s not a boom.
What Toronto is experiencing is a price correction driven by math, not panic:
Higher-for-longer interest rates
Slower buyer demand
Record mortgage renewals
Pressure on overleveraged owners
Weakness in specific segments (especially condos)
Detached homes in strong neighbourhoods are holding better. Condos and leveraged refinances are not.
The result?
✔ Longer days on market
✔ Appraisers becoming conservative
✔ Lenders re-evaluating risk
That combination matters far more to refinancing than headlines do.
Why Refinancing Gets Harder During Corrections
Here’s what many homeowners don’t realize:
Lenders don’t wait for prices to fall — they react before they do.
As soon as a market shows signs of softening:
Appraised values come in lower
Loan-to-value limits tighten
Refinance approvals slow
Exceptions disappear
In Toronto, this is already happening quietly.
If your refinance is based on yesterday’s value, waiting until “later this year” could mean:
Less equity available
Higher blended rates
Needing a second mortgage instead of a clean refinance
Or worse — no approval at all
Condos Are the Pressure Point in 2026
Toronto’s condo market is leading the correction.
High supply, investor fatigue, and affordability ceilings mean:
More listings
More price cuts
More appraisal risk
If you own a condo and are planning to:
Consolidate debt
Extend amortization
Pull equity
Renew into a better structure
👉 2026 is not the year to delay.
What the Data Is Really Saying
Across Canada, forecasts cluster tightly around flat-to-modest movement:
Best case: low single-digit growth (~3%)
Worst case: mild pullback (-3% to -4%)
That sounds harmless — until you remember how refinancing works.
A 5% swing in value can be the difference between approval and decline when combined with:
Higher rates
Stress test math
Income verification
Existing debt
Why Acting Early Matters More Than Ever
Refinancing during uncertainty rewards borrowers who:
✔ Act before lenders tighten
✔ Use equity strategically
✔ Structure flexibility into their mortgage
✔ Don’t rely on best-case appraisals
At Lendworth, we’re already seeing borrowers who waited in 2024–2025 now forced into:
Shorter terms
Higher blended costs
Secondary financing
Those who acted early kept control.
Toronto Homeowners: This Is the Moment
If you’re considering refinancing in 2026 — for any reason — the risk is not that prices crash.
The risk is that they drift just enough to change the math.
📞 Talk to Lendworth today about refinancing, restructuring, or accessing equity before the correction tightens further.
Timing matters. Structure matters.
And in Toronto’s 2026 market, waiting is the most expensive decision of all.
Your equity deserves more™