As 2025 winds down, some major cities are seeing buyer activity surge, while others (especially Toronto and Hamilton) remain stuck in neutral.
If you’re a homeowner, buyer, or investor in Ontario, these trends matter. They shape equity values, refinance opportunities, and how fast (or slow) a sale might happen in early 2026.
Here’s what’s really happening — and what Lendworth expects next.
📈 Markets Heating Up: The First Signs of a Recovery
Across several major regions, buyers stepped back into the market this fall:
Vancouver
Fraser Valley
Calgary
Edmonton
Regina & Saskatoon
Winnipeg
Montreal
Many of these areas saw over 5% increases in resales month-over-month, a notable shift after a slow summer and early fall.
But not every region is celebrating.
📉 Southern Ontario Is Still Cooling
Toronto and Hamilton continue to lag badly behind 2024 levels. Abundant inventory, declining prices, and cautious buyers are keeping activity muted. Even with rate cuts, the urgency simply isn’t there yet.
What’s Driving the Split?
The latest data shows no real change in pricing trends:
Oversupplied markets (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary)
→ Prices continue to drift lower
→ Buyers hold all the negotiating power
Tight-inventory markets (Quebec, Prairies)
→ Prices holding firm or increasing
We expect these diverging regional patterns to continue into early 2026.
A broader Canadian housing recovery is coming — but slowly — as the economy stabilizes and employment confidence improves.
📍 Toronto: Inventory High, Prices Dropping, Buyers Waiting
The Toronto story hasn’t changed:
Momentum has stalled.
Resales are 25% below pre-pandemic norms
Prices are 5–6% lower year-over-year
Sellers are competing heavily
Condo values are facing the strongest downward pressure
Why demand is weak:
Tariff-related economic uncertainty
Weak employment sentiment
Lower immigration levels
No urgency to buy when inventory is high
Lendworth Insight:
Rate cuts may bring buyers off the sidelines, but affordability is still a major barrier. Expect a slow, uneven recovery — with more downward pressure on condos heading into 2026.
📍 Montreal: Quiet Strength and Steady Gains
Montreal continues its slow and steady recovery:
Resales up ~1% month-over-month
Inventory remains low
Demand outweighs new supply
Detached homes ↑ 5.8% year-over-year
Condos flat due to rising supply
Buyer confidence is improving, supported by stable rates and better affordability than Toronto or Vancouver.
📍 Vancouver: Confidence Returning, Affordability Still Brutal
Vancouver posted back-to-back increases in resales this fall — over 4% in November alone.
But the market remains quiet overall:
Activity still 15% below the 10-year average
Affordability challenges keep many buyers renting or waiting
Inventory has doubled since 2022, giving buyers leverage
Prices down 3.9% year-over-year
More inventory + weak affordability = more price declines expected.
📍 Calgary: A Surprising Bright Spot
Calgary might be the most interesting market heading into 2026:
Resales jumped 5%+ to the highest level since January
This happened despite fewer new listings
Prices are down 4.6% year-over-year (making the city far more affordable than GTA/GVA)
A record 26,500 new units are under construction
With more supply coming and prices easing, Calgary is becoming one of Canada’s most attractive markets for end-users and investors.
🏡 What This Means for Ontario Borrowers and Homeowners
Whether you’re refinancing, consolidating debt, or buying a property, here’s the real takeaway:
✔ The GTA is still a buyer’s market — and will stay that way for months.
Great for buyers. Challenging for sellers.
✔ More price softness is likely for condos.
Expect better deals in early 2026.
✔ Rate cuts help, but affordability is still the biggest barrier.
Private mortgages are becoming a go-to option for buyers squeezed out of bank lending.
✔ Equity plays a bigger role than income right now.
This is why Lendworth is seeing a surge in HELOC, refinance, and equity-takeout applications.
💡 How Lendworth Can Help in Today’s Market
With banks tightening, many qualified Ontario borrowers are being turned away — even with strong equity.
Lendworth offers:
First & second mortgages up to 75% LTV
No income or credit score requirements
24–48 hour approvals
Bridge loans for fast purchases
Refinance options for debt consolidation
Equity take-out mortgages for buyers waiting out market conditions
If you own a home in Ontario, your equity is still your strongest financial tool — even in a cooling market.
🔥 Final Take: A National Recovery Is Forming — But Ontario Will Move Slowest
Canada’s housing market is waking up, but Ontario is still hitting the snooze button.
High inventory, lower prices, and cautious buyers will continue shaping Toronto’s market into early 2026. Montreal and Calgary look strongest; Vancouver is stabilizing but not surging.
For Ontarians, this environment opens doors for strategic refinancing, equity take-out, and private lending opportunities — especially while prices remain soft.
📞 Need fast approval during market turbulence?
Get approved today — even if the banks say no.
Visit Lendworth.ca or call us anytime.