According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the Greater Toronto Area’s benchmark home price dropped below $1 million in June (now ~$995,100), down about 5.5% year‑over‑year. The sales-to-new-listings ratio sits around 32%, marking a strong buyer’s market.
🔎 Why Is Toronto’s Real Estate Market Softening?
1. High Interest Rates & Mortgage Renewals
Since 2022, rapid interest rate hikes have made mortgages significantly more expensive. Many homeowners facing renewals at much higher rates are opting to sell instead of refinancing, increasing housing inventory while demand lags.
2. Trade Uncertainty & Economic Slowdown
Tariffs and ongoing trade tensions—especially between the U.S. and Canada—are dampening business confidence. Economists report a 3–4% decline in sales and home prices in 2025, with forecasts pointing to continued softness.
3. Oversupply in the Condo Market
Over 20,000 unsold condo units now sit in the Greater Toronto–Hamilton Area. Developers, previously relying on investor demand, are grappling with excess inventory as investor appetite fades.
4. Investor Pullback & Affordability Challenges
Investors own more than half of Toronto’s condo units, but many are exiting due to rising rates and lower returns. Meanwhile, housing remains unaffordable for first‑time buyers, with debt levels hitting record highs.
5. Structural & Policy Constraints
Efforts to unlock new housing supply face political pushback and delays—such as stalled Greenbelt development plans. Financialization of housing by REITs and private equity has further strained availability for ordinary buyers.
📉 Current Market Snapshot
- Benchmark price: ~$995,100 (June 2025), down 5.5% YoY
- Sales-to-new-listings ratio: ~32% → buyer’s market
- Condo prices: down 8% YoY, averaging ~$585,100
🔮 2025–2026 Outlook
Experts expect national home prices to decline around 2% in 2025, with Toronto likely seeing ~4% further drops. Recovery may begin in 2026, contingent on easing trade tensions and potential interest rate cuts.
✅ Bottom Line
Toronto’s real estate market isn’t collapsing—but it’s clearly softening from pandemic highs. High borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, condo oversupply, and affordability challenges are reshaping the landscape. For buyers, this shift could signal greater negotiating power, while investors and sellers may need to adjust strategies for the new market reality.