A Supply Surge & Demand Collapse
In recent months, resale listings across the region soared past 32,000 active units, creating one of the most imbalanced supply-vs-demand scenarios the market has ever seen: more homeowners listing, fewer buyers closing, and properties lingering far longer than typical.
The ripple effects are wide: many sellers are accepting prices well below their expectations — or even under what they originally paid — while major developers are halting or cancelling planned condos that had promised thousands of new homes.
New Construction Plummets
According to market analysts at Urbanation Inc., the new condo market in the GTA is now experiencing its weakest quarter in 35 years. In Q3 2025, just 319 new condominium apartment sales were recorded across the GTHA — the smallest quarterly total since 1990. Urbanation
At the same time, project cancellations have surged. In Q3 2025 alone, 10 projects totaling 2,499 units were cancelled. For the year to date, there have been 18 projects cancelled representing 4,040 units, already surpassing the previous highest-ever cancellation year in 2018 (15 projects / 3,598 units). Urbanation
Since the beginning of 2024, cancellations now total 32 projects and 6,981 units, with another 20 projects (4,187 units) currently on hold — many of which appear at high risk of cancellation. Urbanation
Inventory & Price Shifts
The slowdown is reflected in inventories: unsold new condo units across all development stages dropped modestly — by 2 % from last year’s peak — to 22,602 units in Q3. Urbanation
Breaking it down:
- Under-construction unsold units fell ~9 % to 10,234.
- Pre-construction unsold units fell ~12 % to 9,424.
- Completed and unsold units, however, jumped 142 % year-over-year to 2,944 units. Urbanation
On pricing, the average asking for developer-owned/resale new units stood at ≈ $1,199 per sq ft, down ~3.5 % from a year earlier and ~9.6 % below two years ago. By contrast, comparable resale units in recently-completed buildings averaged ~$867 / sq ft. Urbanation
What It Means for the Future
As noted by Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand:
“The condo market has clearly become depressed as it undergoes a difficult correction following excessive growth that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the lack of activity occurring today will surely lead to a lack of supply in a couple years, helping to restart the engine for the market.” Urbanation
In other words: the current slump, while painful, may sow the conditions for a rebound — thanks to fewer new launches, rising cancellations, and thus an impending squeeze on future supply.
What Lendworth Clients Should Know
For our clients and stakeholders at Lendworth, some key takeaways:
- Because new condo supply is being pulled back, future scarcity may create strategic buying opportunities — especially for those who can act when demand returns.
- With pricing in decline, buyers may be in a stronger position to negotiate today.
- Lenders and developers should remain cautious: projects still underway face heightened risk — cancellations, financing challenges, or resale competition.
- For sellers or those holding condo-units, it’s critical to model downside scenarios: slower absorption, higher inventory, and extended timelines.
- Diversification across asset types and geographies remains prudent, especially given how sharply the condo segment is under pressure.