According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) fell sharply in June 2025, marking the weakest demand balance for the month of June since 1995—the same period that preceded the largest housing crash in Canadian history.
🔎 What Is the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)?
The SNLR is one of the real estate industry’s most reliable indicators to gauge market conditions:
- Above 60% = Seller’s market: Demand exceeds supply, pushing prices higher.
- Between 40–60% = Balanced market: Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium.
- Below 40% = Buyer’s market: Excess supply puts downward pressure on prices.
But it’s not just where the ratio is—it’s how fast it’s changing. Sudden shifts in this metric often signal major moves ahead in prices and investor sentiment.
📉 June 2025: The Weakest Demand Signal in a Generation
In June, Canada’s national SNLR dropped to 49.3%, sliding 2.2 points from a year earlier. What’s more telling? New listings jumped 8%, while sales only rose 3.5%—signaling that inventory is building much faster than demand.
This marks:
- The lowest SNLR for June since 1995
- The 4th consecutive June of SNLR decline
- A total drop of 23.8 points from recent highs—the steepest since the lead-up to the 1990 crash
If that sounds ominous—it is. The last time supply outpaced demand this aggressively was between 1988 and 1990, right before real estate prices collapsed across the country.
🏘️ What This Means for Canadian Real Estate in 2025
While this doesn’t confirm a crash is underway, it does suggest that market fundamentals are shifting. With inventory swelling and demand plateauing, buyers are gaining the upper hand—especially in key markets like the GTA, Vancouver, and Calgary.
The days of runaway bidding wars and seller-friendly pricing could be numbered—particularly if this trend continues into the fall and interest rates remain elevated.
💬 Is This the Start of a New Housing Cycle?
The Canadian market has weathered economic storms before—but history suggests that sharp SNLR declines often precede price corrections. Will 2025 mark the end of Canada’s real estate bull run?
Drop your thoughts in the comments or reach out to Lendworth if you’re looking to refinance, access equity, or make strategic moves in this changing environment.
📞 Let’s talk about how to navigate the new real estate cycle with confidence.