According to a new RBC Housing Outlook, a surge in listings and slower sales in these provinces is keeping prices soft — creating one of the most favourable conditions for buyers in over a decade.
Ontario’s Market: More Homes for Sale Than Since 2010
RBC reports that Ontario now has the largest housing inventory it’s seen since June 2010.
With supply far outweighing demand, sellers are competing fiercely — a situation expected to push prices down at steeper rates compared to other provinces before stabilizing early in 2026.
The challenge is even sharper in the condo market. The average GTA condo price dropped 5.9% in Q2 to $685,961, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
Urbanation data shows new condo sales plunged 69% last quarter, with just 502 units sold — the lowest activity in years.
Why B.C. Faces Similar Pressure
British Columbia mirrors Ontario’s situation, with imbalances in Vancouver’s condo market beginning to affect other housing segments.
RBC warns that both markets will remain buyer-friendly in the near term, with inventory levels providing ample choice and bargaining power.
The Rest of Canada Tells a Different Story
While Ontario and B.C. grapple with oversupply, markets in the Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada are more balanced.
These provinces are expected to see modest price gains in 2025 and 2026, supported by stable demand and healthier inventory levels.
Immigration Slowdown Impacts Rentals
The federal government’s recent immigration cooldown could further reshape the market.
RBC notes that most newcomers rent for five to 10 years after arriving. With fewer arrivals, rental demand is already slipping — and rents are dropping.
Rentals.ca reports one-bedroom rents are down 6.4%, while two-bedrooms have fallen 8.8% compared to last year.
Lower Interest Rates Spark Pent-Up Demand
Lower borrowing costs are unlocking some demand, with homeownership now at its most affordable level in three years.
TRREB reported the highest July home sales since 2021, though average prices across all property types still dipped 5.5% year-over-year to $1,051,719.
RBC expects the Bank of Canada to hold its 2.75% key rate through 2026, which could further encourage buyers. However, the share of household income needed to cover ownership costs remains well above pre-pandemic norms — keeping affordability in check, especially in Ontario.
RBC’s Price Forecast
- Ontario: -1.0% in 2025, -1.4% in 2026
- Nationally: +0.7% in 2025
With unsold inventory at decade highs, buyers have more time — and leverage — to negotiate, while sellers will need to price competitively to close deals.
What This Means for Lendworth Investors
Periods of market softness often create prime opportunities for asset-backed lending.
At Lendworth, we specialize in equity-based mortgage solutions that are less dependent on traditional income verification, helping borrowers secure financing even in challenging markets — while targeting over 9% annual returns for our investors.
Whether you’re looking to invest in stable, real estate-backed mortgage opportunities or secure financing when the big banks say no, now is the time to act while market conditions favour flexible, strategic lending.
📞 Contact Lendworth today at www.lendworth.ca to learn how we can help you leverage the current market to your advantage.