Newly released deliberations show that policymakers debated last month whether interest rates are already low enough to help Canada weather the storm.
On July 30, 2025, the BoC decided to keep its policy rate steady at 2.75%, even as U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%—while leaving exemptions for items compliant with CUSMA. Despite the uncertainty, officials pointed to signs of economic resilience across Canada.
Why the Bank of Canada Hit Pause
The central bank has already cut rates seven times between June 2024 and March 2025, bringing borrowing costs down to support growth. Since interest rate changes take months—sometimes over a year—to filter through the economy, many of those cuts are only beginning to show results.
Some policymakers felt additional rate cuts now could overstimulate demand just as the economy recovers, risking higher inflation. Others argued that if the labour market weakens or if slack builds further, another cut could be needed later this year.
Inflation Outlook: No Sharp Rise from Tariffs
The BoC assessed three tariff scenarios: status quo, de-escalation, or escalation. None projected a sharp rise in inflation. So far, consumer price impacts from tariffs appear “modest,” but risks remain elevated as supply chains adjust.
For now, the bank’s focus remains on balancing growth with inflation, keeping rates in the “neutral” range. The next key decision will come on September 17, 2025, when fresh inflation data for July and August will be on the table.
What This Means for Borrowers and Investors
For Canadian households, steady interest rates provide short-term relief—but rising tariffs could still affect jobs, exports, and consumer prices. For investors, this environment highlights the importance of stable, asset-backed opportunities.
At Lendworth, we continue to offer mortgage investment opportunities that are insulated from central bank volatility, targeting 9%+ annual returns secured by Canadian real estate. In uncertain times, our equity-based lending model offers stability, growth, and protection against inflation.